Editorial -- Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail

Over the last few months, we have had plenty of differences with the Biden Administration over their handling of the Ukraine conflict. But we have to call things as we see them. Those are just differences. We train our criticisms for the most part against the US government because we are taxpayers of the US, not the Russian Federation.

But Putin’s nuclear blackmail of Wednesday, in which he threatened to use nukes if the “territorial integrity” of Russia, whatever that means, were threatened, is too disturbing to ignore.

For starters, this increases the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons over this conflict. Previously, Russia had ruled out the use of nuclear weapons during the conflict unless nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction were used on Russia, or Russia’s national existence was in danger. They maintained this posture during the first seven months of the “Special Military Operation.”

Russia’s “Special Military Operation” was totally predictable; any Russian leader would have done what they did given the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Then, as now, Russia believed that the US was planning to plant nuclear weapons five minutes from Moscow. We don’t know if the US actually was planning on doing so, but that was what Russia believed. That doesn’t make what Russia did, either in 1979 or 2022, defensible.

But Putin’s blackmail goes well beyond the previous response. No country has used nuclear weapons in warfare since 1945, and it shows what kind of a man Putin is – a bully who has always gotten by in life by making threats against people to get his way.

What President Putin could be doing could be one of two things. He could very well be bluffing. Or, he could be serious about his threats. We tend to think that he is bluffing for the following reasons:

–He doesn’t act like a man who wants to die. He, and Russian propaganda outlets, have been constantly talking about creating a multipolar order along with countries like China, Brazil, India, South Africa, and others, purportedly based on mutual respect and the UN Charter. 

–The US and NATO have been systematically seeking to isolate Russia over the years. But if Russia were to follow through and use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or anywhere else, then that would be different. They would be isolating themselves. Countries on the fence over the Ukraine conflict like Mexico and Turkey and India would likely reconsider their willingness to continue to do business with Russia. That would undermine or destroy Russia’s own efforts to create an international multipolar world order.

–If Russia were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, they would be putting their own soldiers and their own people at risk, given the massive radioactive fallout that would arise.

–The US will know if Russia changes its nuclear posture or if there is unusual activity where Russian nuclear silos are located or unusual troop movements. So far, the State Department said following Putin’s speech that the US has noted no changes in their nuclear posture.

So why would Putin use nuclear blackmail? For two reasons. First, his speech was intended for a domestic audience. He has constantly used the threat of US imperialism and aggression to keep his people in line. Secondly of all, as much as the US and NATO say they will support Ukraine as much as it takes for as long as it takes, it is true that they consider the likelihood of Russian retaliation when making decisions about how to support Ukraine. This is why, for instance, the US and NATO ruled out the use of troops or a no-fly zone in Ukraine.

We still agree with the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who said Thursday that the only solution to the conflict was a negotiated peace with Russia and Ukraine at the table. But all of the preceding presupposes that President Putin is a rational actor.

If we’re wrong, and President Putin follows through and uses nuclear weapons, then that would mean that President Putin is no longer a rational actor, and the rest of the world should act accordingly. 

In 1938, the British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, declared peace for our time after signing a non-aggression pact with Germany, in which Germany agreed not to make any more territorial demands after annexing part of Czechoslovakia. The next year, the world was at war. Perhaps President Putin would have done what he did even if the US and NATO would have followed a much more peaceful policy after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. But as long as there is the slightest chance to achieve world peace and stop the madness in Ukraine that is spreading around the world, we still have to try.