Trump Tariffs — Pro and Con

Pro — National Cattlemen’s Beef Association

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane issued a statement after attending President Donald J. Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement at the White House:

“For too long, America’s family farmers and ranchers have been mistreated by certain trading partners around the world. President Trump is taking action to address numerous trade barriers that prevent consumers overseas from enjoying high-quality, wholesome American beef. NCBA will continue engaging with the White House to ensure fair treatment for America’s cattle producers around the world and optimize opportunities for exports abroad.”

Numerous countries impose tariff and non-tariff trade barriers on American beef that inhibit opportunities to export our high-quality product. For example,

—Australia has sold roughly $29 billion of beef to American consumers. Meanwhile, we have not been able to sell $1 of fresh U.S. beef in Australia due to non-scientific barriers. This was noted in one of President Donald Trump’s recent tweets.

—Vietnam places a 30% tariff on U.S. beef while Australian beef faces no such tariff.

—Thailand places a 50% tariff on U.S. beef.

—Brazil and Paraguay have a history of dangerous foot-and-mouth disease, but despite overwhelming evidence of their animal health risk, the Biden administration continued to allow U.S. market access to Brazil and Paraguay.

—The European Union places numerous non-scientific “Green New Deal” restrictions on American beef, limiting market opportunities.

—American cattle producers raise the highest-quality and safest beef in the world and NCBA continues to push for more opportunities for U.S. producers to sell their beef abroad, increasing profitability.

In addition, President Donald Trump argues that the tariffs are beneficial because it becomes cheaper for companies to locate in the US and avoid the tariffs. He says that since the start of his second term, over $1.5 trillion worth of private investment has been secured for the US.

Con — Yale Budget Lab

The Yale Budget Lab argues that the tariffs have a disproportionate effect on the poor and the middle class.

—The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 2.3% in the short run, the equivalent of an average per household consumer loss of $3,800 in 2024 dollars. Annual losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $1,700.

—The 2025 tariffs disproportionately affect clothing and textiles, with apparel prices rising 33%. Food prices rise 4.5%, roughly triple recent grocery inflation.

—US real GDP growth is -0.9pp lower from all 2025 tariffs. In the long-run, the US economy is persistently -0.6% smaller respectively, the equivalent of $180 billion annually in 2024$.

—The unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage point by the end of 2025, and payroll employment is 600,000 lower.

Since the April 2nd report, China announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all US goods, and President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 104%. The figures quoted above do not reflect these changes.

The figures quoted above do not necessarily reflect subsequent changes in these tariffs. For instance, on Tuesday, President Donald Trump touted a potential deal with South Korea involving tariffs, shipbuilding, a joint venture in an Alaska pipeline, and payments for the protection the US gives to protect them from North Korean aggression. His Secretary of Treasury, Scott Bessent, reported that almost 70 countries have now approached the US wanting to rebalance global trade.